COVID-19: Global Market Model Predicts Major Economic Impact of Coronavirus Across Markets

19 Mar, 2020

TBRC’s Global Market Model forecasts decline for many markets in 2020 due to the dramatic impact of the coronavirus (Covid 19) outbreak. The impact is expected to be global, with more countries likely to develop significant outbreaks. The hospitality and entertainment industry will be the most affected, with decline across the year. Major sporting, business and entertainment events are likely to be cancelled, thus slashing revenues. Beyond this, however, other markets will see major down turns. The most important reason for this will be loss of consumer confidence, with consumers stock piling and avoiding luxury expenditure in the face of wide-spread health concerns. Added to this will be losses in productivity due to workplace closures and supply chain disruptions.

Commodity Markets the First To Suffer

Commodities’ markets are the first to be hit. Oil and gas and metals are already seeing decline in demand driving down prices and reducing volume sales, thus reducing the overall market size. The virus is also likely to impact the retail and wholesale markets , especially offline sales as people become less willing to shop and more conservative in their purchasing for a period. The transport services market, previously expected to grow strongly due to booming tourism and mobility, is now expected to see low growth, and some parts of the global hospitality industry will experience decline. More resilient will be the healthcare and technology markets, which will play a significant role in the containment of the disease.

Coronavirus Affects to be Felt Beyond China

In specific countries the picture is even more stark. In China, growth across markets is expected to drop from a previous forecast of 8% growth in 2020. The booming Chinese hospitality, transport and recreation markets which were expected to exceed 10% growth in 2020 are now forecast to face low digit growth or even contraction. A similar pattern is expected in other countries covered in the Global Market Model, such as South Korea. Hospitality, travel and entertainment industries in South Korea will be heavily hit, with minimal growth in 2020. The transport services market, already expected to see anaemic growth in 2020 in South Korea, is likely to go into recession as movement is restricted and individuals avoid public transport.

The forecasts come from the Global Market Model, which is the world’s most comprehensive database of integrated market information, based on data from hundreds of the world’s leading sources. The model covers market size and growth of 2500+ markets ( in 60 countries, all in one integrated platform.

“The corona virus outbreak is a much wider issue than just China or just supply chains” comments Oliver Guirdham, research head at TBRC. “When people are concerned about their health and safety, their normal consumer behaviour changes, they tend to become more conservative, both as consumers and in business. The result of this on a wide scale will be a significant slow-down, and some markets going rapidly backwards. The financial markets have started to realise this, which is what we have seen in corrections.”

As a live platform the Global Market Model is continuously updated to reflect the latest news and data, with forecasts adjusted on the basis of real time developments. “It is at times like this that you really see the value of this platform” comments Oliver. “If you buy an expensive market report, the forecasts and outlook can often be outdated quickly. The Global Market Model is updated live, so it is a low cost and affective answer for many businesses that need up to date and forward-looking information in thousands of specialist markets.”